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Delta approaches hurricane strength

The 10:00am EST advisory from the National Hurricane Center has increased Tropical Storm Delta's intensity to 70 mph and 980 mb. This makes Delta a very strong tropical storm. Delta is currently drifting east at around 2 mph and is expected to turn towards the north.0:NHC Track Map

The infrared satellite imagery is not showing a very strong storm. Delta is lacking any clear convection and does not look like a typical tropical system.1:Infrared Satellite Image

Delta's future track is very difficult to predict at this point. The models are all calling for a general drift towards the north, but there is nothing even close to a consensus among them. Seemingly the best bet right now is generally in-line with NHC. Delta should slowly drift slightly further directly south and then turn around and head directly north.2:Model Forecast Tracks

Looking at the GFDL model as an example, it is clear that in the short term Delta will be drifting over relativelty warm water. This slow drift combined with weakening wind shear could allow Delta to briefly intensify into a hurricane. However, this would be short lived as Delta will quickly turn northward over cooler sea surface temperatures (SST's).3:GFDL Forecast Track & SST's


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink