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Tropical Depression 20 forms in the Atlantic

Last night I thought that TD 19 was going to be the story of the day in the Atlantic. However, it seems that the action was south of Cuba the entire time. Newly-formed Tropical Depression 20 is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm before landfall over the Yucatan then proceed into the Gulf of Mexico, restrengthen, and again make landfall in northeastern Mexico.

The intensity forecasts look problematic to me, at this system has hardly followed expectations so far. Especially when you are sending a very week system across land, I do not see how NHC can have such confidence in their intensity forecast.

The satellite shots are showing a much healthier system than was present yesterday. However, the depression still has not developed a heavy convective core. I think this needs to happen soon for it to have any hope of becoming a tropical storm before landfall.

The models seem to have a surprisingly solid handle on the track. This leaves me no reason to doubt NHC's official track as they all seem perfectly reasonable to me.

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink