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Mid-Atlantic collision in the works?

I received a question from M. Bandrowski asking about any interactions between Wilma and TD 25, so I decided to take a look. After checking out some of the models, I think we could have a very interesting collision coming. First off, look at NHC's forecast tracks for Wilma and TD 25. Pay attention to where they are on Tuesday morning.

Notice them both off the Carolina coast? The GFDL model is calling for this to turn into a real mess. Below is a shot of the GFDL model on Monday afternoon. The box on the right is zoomed in on 'Alpha' at that time. In the shot, Hurricane Wilma is over central Florida while Alpha is a Category 3 hurricane to the northeast of the Bahamas.

Very quickly these two hurricanes are merged together right over the Gulf Steam. The combined hurricane travels right up the Gulf Stream (battering the East Coast on the way) and a day later (Tuesday afternoon) there is a weakening Category 2 hurricane right off of Cape Cod.

To walk through the model run yourself, FSU's GFDL charts are great. Right now the GFDL is the only model I can find that develops Alpha, so I haven't seen much else for alternative opinions, but I'll keep you posted.


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink