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Hurricane Warning posted for Mexico in anticipation of Stan

Hurricane Warnings are now in effect for much of the Mexican coast ahead of Stan. Currently Stan is listed with a central pressure of 992 mb and sustained winds of 60 mph. These numbers remain very rough because of air space issues with the Mexican government.

The computer models had a good handle on Stan in the past, but are starting to show a larger spread. Take a look at the latest GFS ensemble members. After 24 hours, they go all over.

The model intensity forecast is also showing a bit of spread, but indicate plenty of strengthening. Stan looks to easilly become a hurricane before landfall.

This morning Stan had a very healthy circulation, and it looks like all of that low-level convergence has helped fire a very healthy burst of convection, which has continued all day.

The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates put Stan at 982.2 mb with sustained winds of 72.2 kts (83.1 mph). This would indicate that Stan may already be a hurricane. In the past, these estimates have done very well with forecasting intensification.


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink