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Hurricane Vince threatens Europe

Despite encountering cool ocean temperatures, Vince has strengthened to a hurricane as he moves off the coast of Africa. I am very surprised that Vince developed in this section of the Atlantic as ocean temperatures are only 23-25 degrees C. Typically surface temperatures of at least 26 degrees C are needed for tropical development. However, one quick look at Vince and it is clear that he is now a hurricane. You can notice Portugal in the upper-right corner and Africa in the lower-right.


Vince is the first tropical cyclone and hurricane in the Atlantic to ever bear a 'V' name. Right now 2005 is the second busiest tropical season on record and is well poised to break the all-time record. What may surprise people the most is Vince's likely destination. I think word got out that Europe is very nice this time of year.


The computer models seem to be in very clear agreement of a landfall on the Iberian Peninsula in a couple days. However, he is not very likely to be a hurricane at that time. A cold front moving across the Atlantic will likely combine with Vince and create a very interesting hybrid storm.


The models currently don't have any handle on intensity, as Vince is a very unusual storm. Vince was borne from a cold core system and slowly developed tropical characteristics. Computer models do very poorly with hybrid storms and I have no trust in any of them right now.

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink