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For computer model forecasts, visit our charts page.

Hurricane Vince latest model charts

Here are the latest model charts. First we'll take a look at the latest model suite showing a variety of possible tracks. As you can see, a landfall on the Iberian Peninsula looks very likely.

Vince_101005_00z_model.JPG

The GFS ensemble is showing a clear track towards Portugal in 48 hours.

Vince_101005_00z_ensemble.jpg

Intensity forecasts for this type of hurricane are very problematic. The models do not handle hybrid storms very well. The models actually never called for this storm to develop over the cool waters of the Eastern Atlantic, but a hurricane popped up. The intensity forecasts below show steady weakening to tropical storm force at landfall, but I do not have much faith in them.

Vince_101005_00z_intense.jpg

As always, check back to the main page for updates.


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink