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Forecast discussion from Brookhaven, NY

This says it best:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION/MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
418 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005

...POWERFUL EARLY SEASON NOR'EASTER TO BRING HEAVY RAINS...STRONG
WINDS...AND COASTAL FLOODING TO THE REGION TODAY...

.NEAR TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...
ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON
NOR'EASTER. FIRST A VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SWING TOWARDS THE COAST THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. SECOND...STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA IS INTENSIFYING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND SETTING UP A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE COMBINED UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE HAS ALREADY KICKED OFF THE CYCLOGENESIS PROCESS WITH A 992 MB
COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH 3-5 MB HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS
TRACKING TO THE NNE OF THE LOW POSITION. WITH THE OBSERVED PRESSURE
FALL TRENDS...EXPECT THIS LOW TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND TRACK NE TO
AROUND CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE HURRICANE WILMA...315
MILES SE OF CAPE HATTERAS...IS RACING NE THIS MORNING AND WILL
PINWHEEL AROUND THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WELL EAST OF THE
40/70 BENCHMARK AND ABOUT 420 MILES EAST OF MONTAUK PT BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THE REMNANTS OF WILMA WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE COAST...THE
COMBINATION OF ITS PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW...AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE A TROPICAL AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING
UP THE COAST. STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ACROSS THE REGION INTERACTING
WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. SO FAR BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AND
ADDITIONAL QPF LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHEAST CT AND ACROSS SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY...MODELS ARE INDICATING MESOSCALE DEFORMATION BANDING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL AID IN LOCALLY HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...AS SATURATED SOILS
FROM THIS RECORD RAINFALL MONTH WILL LEND TO QUICK RISES ON AREA
CREEKS AND STREAMS.

WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP THIS MORNING AND REMAIN STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA AND INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
JUST TO THE EAST OF LI. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH
GUSTS 35 TO 45 KT ACROSS MARYLAND...SOUTHERN JERSEY...AND DELAWARE
COASTS WITH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL ENE JET AT 1-2
KFT. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING TO 50-60 KT AT AROUND 1-2 KFT.
WILL UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH BEING
DRAGGED DOWN IN HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

THE PCPN WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN TONIGHT AS THE LOW
BYPASSES THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. ENOUGH COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE STORM SYSTEM MAY END THE PCPN ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CONNECTICUT IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW. THICKNESS
WILL BE MARGINAL...PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ACCUM IS EXPECTED. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT
...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA MAY RECEIVE THE FIRST
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF THE SEASON.


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink