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Farewell to Stan?

Meteorologists are often faced with very difficult decisions when issuing forecasts. Sometimes when I look at the models and compare them to what I have seen, my gut just tells me to throw out the models and shoot from the hip. As you may have already guessed, this is how I am feeling right now. Generally as a meteorologist, expressing these ideas is tantamount to professional suicide. If I shared every crackpot idea that I have ever had, no sane person would ever listen to me. In essence, I would be Walt Drag. (Those of you who are not from meteorologists from southern New England will not understand that, I realize.) Well, in this case, screw it. I am finally seeing enough evidence to go out on a limb here. I think Stan is doing to redevelop in the Pacific. Yes, I am serious.

All day I have been watching Stan move towards the southwest and wondering if he could actually redevelop over the Pacific. The entire time the models have been opposing this idea, yet this idea still stuck in mind. Just look at Stan's track so far.

The models surely aren't playing nice to this idea. The only model that is buying my crazy idea is the climate and persistence model.

The GFS ensemble really doesn't like this idea either.

Bah! I know you all probably think I am crazy now, but check out the latest IR satellite shot.

Do you all see that flare of convection over the Pacific? Of course the experimental MM5 out of FSU likes my idea... a little. The MM5 tracks Stan into the Pacific, and then trows it in reverse back across Mexico. I would expect no less from an experimental model.

This really could happen, and Stan so far hasn't paid much attention to the models. You guys can officially count me as interested. I have to be adventurous once in a while. If that convective burst persists, it could easilly reform the center of Stan over the Pacific. Crazier things have happened. NHC has even resisted discontinuing Stan because I think that have the same itch in the back of their minds. If tomorrow morning I am wrong, just pretend that this never happened. As a Red Sox fan, I would like nothing more than to forget that today ever happened.


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink