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Area forecast discussion from NWS Upton / Brookhaven, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
409 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

...POWERFUL EARLY SEASON NOR'EASTER TO BRING HEAVY RAINS...STRONG
WINDS...AND COASTAL FLOODING TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON
NOR'EASTER. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RESULT IN COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IN FACT...THIS IS ALREADY
TAKING PLACE WITH THE 18Z MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTING A 997 MB LOW OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS OF 4 TO 5 MB. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE WILMA TO THE COASTAL LOW
WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN A VERY STRONG E/NE FLOW FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB
AS BOTH LOWS TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY TUE. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE MET
ACROSS COASTAL CT...NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
EVENING.

STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW TRACK
AND HIGH PW AIR (TROPICAL CONNECTION W/WILMA) WILL PRODUCE MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z (8 PM) AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUE. QPF LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND... SOUTHEAST CT AND ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SLIGHTLY
LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG E/NE FLOW
WILL PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITIES AND WIDESPREAD URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING...WHILE WET SOILS FROM THIS RECORD RAINFALL
MONTH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO QUICK RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS.
THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDED ALL OF NYC..CT AND LONG ISLAND.

THE PCPN WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WHIND DOWN TUE EVE/NIGHT AS THE LOW
BYPASSES THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. ENOUGH COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE STORM SYSTEM MAY END THE PCPN ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT...MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA MAY RECEIVE THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWS
OF THE SEASON. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED
TO DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THE COLD AIR.
&&

.SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
CLOSED LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING UP INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...REMNANTS OF WILMA RACE TO EAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND...WHILE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL NE OF THE AREA
WITH A GRADUALLY WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH DYNAMICS OF UPPER LOW AND
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONES.

DEEP NW FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DRYING WITH TEMPS BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AFTER THE REMNANTS OF WILMA LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE ADJACENT NEW
ENGLAND WATERS...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE IN FROM THE
WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IT WILL DO SO WITH A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
COMBINE TO RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS...AND TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOL SIDE. A COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON SAT ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE WATERS OFF OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON MON. 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A GENERAL 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE NYC...CT...AND LONG
ISLAND. RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LEAVES AREA STREAMS AND FAST
ACTING RIVERS IN DANGER OF MINOR FLOODING...WHILE THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS URBAN
AREAS.
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS: BEGINNING TO SEE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEMS. LOOKING AT STORM FORCE GUSTS FOR OCEAN WATERS AND HAVE
EXPANDED STORM WARNINGS TO INCLUDE ALL 3 OCEAN MARINE ZONES...WITH
GUSTS A LITTLE LOWER ON THE SOUND AND HARBOR....BUT STILL WELL INTO
GALES. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO WED WITH THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW.

COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL: WITH THE STRONG E-NE FLOW...TIDE LEVELS
WILL BE RISING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY BY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES RIGHT NOW...
THINKING IS THAT WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LIKELY WITH
LOCALIZED MODERATE FLOODING IN THE BACK BAYS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
LATER HIGH TIDE CYCLES...ESPECIALLY TUE EVENING AS WINDS JUST
TURNING TOWARD THE N TUE NIGHT. MAY STILL HAVE SOME PROBLEMS... BUT
STILL IN THE MINOR CATEGORY RIGHT NOW.

HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION: BEACHES TO TAKE ANOTHER BEATING NEXT 24-48
HOURS. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY. CFWOKX
ALREADY ISSUED.
&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS ALREADY DOWN TO MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE DOWNWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES WITH
PREVAILING IFR CIGS EXPECTED BEFORE DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THESE CIGS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. VSBY
WILL ALSO BE LOWERING WITH TIME AS THE RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN AND
SOME FOG BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BECOME A MAJOR ISSUE AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND NEARLY 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY SPEED SHEAR...IS ALSO LIKELY
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT ON.
&&


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