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Area forecast discussion from NWS Taunton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED DAILY RECORDS 10/25 MQE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
502 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

...MAJOR COASTAL STORM TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY...

M1 437 PM: INTERNALLY SOME OF OUR FOLKS HAVE DETECTED A MODELED
GRAVITY WAVE PASSAGE IN THE 12Z/24 SUSBMM5 PROGGED MOVING ENE ALONG
THE SNE COAST 09Z-15Z TUE. ITS IN THE 4KM SUSBMM5 SFC PRES AND 10 M
WIND FIELD. LETS SEE HOW THAT UNFOLDS.

&&
.SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME NEXT 10 DAYS WITH A MAJOR
COASTAL STORM TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER NEXT WEEKEND? THE LATTER
IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
IMPRESSIVE EVOLUTION OF EVENTS TAKING PLACE BEFORE OUR EYES.
WILMA - STILL A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ACCELERATIONG OFF THE COAST
AND TRYING TO TURN JUST A TAD MORE NORTHERLY. AT THE SAME TIME -
UPR JET DYNAMICS...STRENGTHENING LLVL INFLOW AND BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED AN ENHANCED CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINS AND INCREASING
WINDS.

MODELS DO DIFFER IN HOW WILMA INTERACTS...BUT ODDS FAVOR TWO SEPARATE
CIRCULATIONS. BUT CLEARLY...THERE WILL BE SOME "FEEDBACK" FROM WILMA
INTO THE DEVLEOPING NOR'EASTER. 3RLY 6MB FALL CENTER VCNTY HATTERAS
AT 19Z AND THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING.

RAINS TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFT 00Z WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS LIKELY IN THE 10-20Z TIMEFRAME. BELIEVE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
QPF WILL BE VCNTY OF LLVL E/NE JET AND WHERE THERE IS A HINT OF
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS. BELIEVE 2-3 INCH SWATH LIKELY ACROSS THE ERN
1/2 OF SNE WITH SPOT 4-5 INCH AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF QUESTION. FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR RI AND ERN MA.

HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE COAST WHERE 30-40G55 KT
POSSIBLE AT HEIGHT OF EVENT. WIND ADVISORIES NOW IN PLACE JUST W OF
THIS COVERING RI AND ERN MA N TO HILLSBOROUGH CNTY NH.

MOS MEAN FOLLOWED FOR TEMPS AND WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THRU 6Z WED.

COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES - THANKFULLY TIDE CYCLE IS NOT
THAT HIGH BUT COMBO OF 3FT SURGE AND 20 FT SEAS PLACE ERN MA IN
OUR ZONE OF MODERATE FLOODING - LOCAL RESEARCH FAVORS 12 FT TIDE
PLUS 20 FT SEAS OR MORE AS CAPABLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW OF INDUCING
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
CONTINUITY WITH MID SHIFT FCST TEMPS WED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY PER
REVIEW OF THE FCST AGAINST SLIGHTLY WARMER 14Z HPC GUIDANCE.
MAX/MIN TEMP DIURNALS MAY BE TOO LARGE FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT BUT
SINCE UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT NARROW THE DIRUNAL ATTM.

ANY LARGE SCALE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLC COAST COULD TRANSLATE DUE
EAST AND MISS US TO THE SOUTH...BUT WE HAVE POPS IN THE FCST.
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. EVEN PTYPE MIGHT BE A PBLM.

WE ARE SO PREOCCUPIED WITH THE NEXT 36 HRS THAT WE DIDNT SPEND A LOT
OF TIME ON THE WEEKEND.

OTRW 12Z GFS IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER IN THE FCST WED-FRI.

ON THE WEEKEND EVENT...12Z/24 ECMWF IS SOUTH BUT BIG. UK AND GGEM OP
RUNS ARE ROUTINE NOREASTERS BUT HIT US.

&&

.AVIATION...
BEEN PLAYING CAT/MOUSE WITH CIGS OVC015-035 ALL DAY. TREND IS
DOWNWARD WITH IFR/LIFR BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AFT 03Z AS RAINS HEAD
IN. G45 KTS BEING MENTION

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CRNT FCST HAS EXCELLENT HANDLE ON EVENTS AND SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH ATM. GALES ON NARR BAY AND BOS HARBOR WITH
STORMS ELSEWHERE. DANGER TO MARINERS IS THE RAPID SPIN UP OF WIND
AND SEAS CRNTLY FCST.

LONG TERM...AS YOU SEE THE ZONE FORECAST PFM AFM PT AND CLICK...WE'VE
GOT A PRETTY SIZABLE EVENT GOING SUNDAY....BUT ONLY A 30-50 POP
ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ASIDE FROM ALL WRITTEN IN ST SECTION...THE WEEKEND EVENT COULD BE
LARGE...INSULT TO INJURY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RER RAINFALLS TUESDAY 10/25
BOS 1.84 1980
PVD 1.72 1953
BDL 2.81 1913
ORH 2.02 1980
MQE 2.24 1980

ON WEB ENTRY...IT WOULD BE HELPFUL TO HAVE ALL CO-OP OBSERVERS SEND
VIA WEBENTRY...MONTHLY TOTALS AFTER THIS EVENT ESSENTIALLY COMPLETES
BY 12Z WED. THAT WILL AFFORD US A BETTER HANDLE ON MONTHLY TOTALS
FROM THE CO-OPS.

ADDITIONALLY SKYWARN AT THAT TIME SHOULD AS WELL SEND IN MONTHLY
AMOUNTS BUT ONLY THOSE OVER 15". WE WONT HAVE TIME TO EVENTUALLY
REPUBLISH THIS PNS WITH EVERY AMOUNT UNDER 15".

FINALLY ON THE EVENT ITSELF...WEBENTRY OF 2" OR GREATER FOR 24 HOURS
WILL BE HELPFUL...AS WELL AS STREAM/COASTAL FLOODING....WIND DAMAGE.

&&


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