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A look ahead to winter...

All of this talk of snow in Denver has gotten me excited for things to come. Ok, maybe it's the fact that I have not seen the sun in a week, thanks to the rain. As part of our transition, we will eventually be changing over our banner. For those of you with suggestions for slogans, please email them to StormTrackFeedback@gmail.com. Alas, before I know it, this will be the scene across much of the country:

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Ah, how I long for the change! Throughout the months of October and November, TheStormTrack will be transitioning into winter weather mode as the tropical season calms down. However, fear not, I still love a good hurricane and TheStormTrack will be there as Tropical Storm Alpha is born!

But what does this winter have in store? The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently forecasting above normal winter temperatures for the vast majority of the country, including Alaska. The only exception to this seems to be the Eastern Seaboard, where the forecast calls for equal chances of above and below normal temperatures. Nowhere in the country are below normal temperatures likely.

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CPC's precipitation forecast seems fairly evenly balanced with a slight dry area forecast in the Southwest and a wet spot in the Texarkana area.

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Right now El Nino (ENSO) seems to be asleep. If anything, a weak La Nina could be developing as there is a cooler than normal area (stronger upwelling) off the coast of Peru.

100505_ENSO.gif
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Over the summer the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has stayed consistently positive. If this trend continues, that would indicate warmer temperatures and less snow across the East Coast. However, the NAO can change in a matter of weeks, making this a fairly short term indicator.

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For those of you who are salvating already, I will have more in early to mid November when winter starts to set in. At that point I should have a much better idea what to expect.


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink