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Wednesday Pacific Update

Things are getting a little more exciting in the tropics today. We are now dealing with Tropical Depression 15-E right off the coast of Mexico. The depression's circulation is not very strong yet, but is forecast to strengthen soon.

TD15E_092805_10am_IR.jpg

The models are split on the track of the depression, but some do threaten Baja California.

TD15E_092805_12z_model.png

NHC forecast track follows the bulk of the models and take the depression just off shore.

Elsewhere in our backyard, Kenneth is continuing to track directly at Hawai'i. While Kenneth is likely to only be a tropical depression when he reaches the Aloha State, it could still create trouble. The steep terrain of the islands enhance precipitation on the mountain sides and funnel the water into valley rivers. Friday and Saturday could bring very heavy rains and flash flooding to much of the 50th state.

Right now the models are split over Kenneth's track, with most moving him to the north of the islands, while a couple move him directly at Hawai'i.

Kenneth_092805_12z_model.png

Right now the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu is calling for a direct strike on the Hawaiian Islands. This is in line with the AVN model, and accordingly is fairly believable.

Kenneth_092805_10am_track.gif


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink